How NFL Suspensions Affect Betting Odds

Today we are going to take a look at how suspension for football players affects the the NFL Odds in Vegas. Specifically, we are going to look at the calateral damage that has happened as a result of players behaviors in Pittsburgh. I am not interested in attacking the Steelers program just that they have had player suspensions that have resinated throughout the NFL and will affect how odds are set in Las Vegas for the 2010 campaign.

At this moment the Steelers have a 20 to 1 line as the team to win the Super Bowl in 2010. Actually with what’s been going on there the odds are lower than I expected. You have to consider their starting quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger will not be there for the first 4 games of the season. If you couple that with the loss of Santonio Holmes to the Jets, as a result of a 4 game suspension, the Steelers chances of running the table seem very bleak for the 2010 season. You couple that with the improvements of teams like Baltimore and Cincinnati in their division and I am surprised that they are not more like 30 to 1 dogs.  But than again, what doI know. The Philadelphia Eagles are 18 to 1 and they just had a going out of business sale this off season. Many of their seasoned veterans are gone now and they are banking on their young players to step up and win in arguably the toughest division in Football.

Lets take a step back and think about what the odds would be if the Roethlisberger and Holmes suspensions never happened. This would mean that Big Ben would be starting  from game one and still have Holmes as his number one receiver. Holme’s receiving numbers were good last year but not gaudy. You must consider the fact that Holmes drew a majority of the double teams in 09 which in turn freed up Mike Wallace deep. This year Mr. Wallace will not have that luxury. Likewise, after 4 games this year the Jets will have another legitimate number one on the field with Holmes. Teams will have to decide whether to double him or Braylon Edwards, which is a pick your poison, because either receiver is a problem for any defense. And, this is probably one of the reasons that the Jets have 10 to 1 odds of winning the Super Bowl.

Sports betting is all a guessing game but it is an educated guessing game much like playing the stock market. You take in as much pertinent information as possible and make you best predictions based on that knowledge. If you feel that the Steelers will do fine with their back ups through the first 4 games of the season and that Big Ben will come back with a chip on his shoulder to prove himself to be one of the best QBs in the league, than place your bet. Or, maybe you think that Santonio Holmes will be more of a problematic distraction for the Jets than he is worth and you want to stay from the Jets. Anyway that your football brain wants to slice it, you have to take into consideration that the NFL discipline policies has effect on the outcome of a season and you need to consider and way all options before you lay your money down.